Tyrus W. Cobb: Let's stop drinking the renewable energy Kool-Aid

October 27, 2011

Reno-Gazette Journal

Tyrus W. Cobb

Proponents of "green energy" continue to hype the potential of solar, wind, biomass and other renewable resources as cheap, abundant engines that can efficiently propel economic growth in the state.

But these cheerleaders ignore the soaring costs associated with producing electricity from these sources, a differential that will only be magnified as vast new reserves of traditional fossil fuels become available.

These adherents seem unaware of the shale gas revolution that has occurred in the past few years and the coming explosion of oil production in North America. Hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") has unearthed vast natural gas reserves previously buried in inaccessible shale rock.

There is a historic shift occurring in global oil and gas production. American expert Dan Yergen predicts an amazing "new rebalancing," with the Western Hemisphere moving back to self-sufficiency and an end to our reliance on long-distance energy shipments from areas of conflict. Venezuela is now considered to have bigger oil reserves than Saudi Arabia, new finds in the Arctic area are very promising and recent oil exploits in Canada and the U.S. suggest that technology might be trumping geology.

Offshore oil will be tapped, but the most significant development is the exploitation of extensive rock formations ranging from Texas to North Dakota, believed previously to be too costly and technologically impossible to extract the fuels.

Just a few years ago, many of us worried that the world had reached "peak oil," the point at which global petroleum production began a steep downward slope. Now, these new extraction techniques promise such an expansion of oil and gas production that some observers believe the United States could become energy independent. While these estimates are somewhat optimistic, there is no doubt that the revolution in technology will alleviate our dependence on oil from the volatile Middle East and gas from such unreliable suppliers such as Russia and Algeria.

In the midst of this revolution, we still hear claims that Nevada can play a key role in the development of green technology as well as becoming a net exporter.

In fact, the only renewable that offers real potential for the state is our extensive geothermal resources. We need to maintain the emphasis on geothermal, with a view to exploiting the promising returns that could come from deep drilling and fracking.

Presently, solar and wind cost about five times per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated as much as natural gas, despite questionable extensive federal subsidies (think Solyndra, whose bankruptcy caused the government to lose a half-billion-dollar loan guarantee). We need to continue conducting research in these areas given that fossil fuels can't last forever, but the expansion of gas and oil production affords us time to make solar, wind and, yes, nuclear, more reliable and cost-efficient alternatives.

While the U.S. must continue to invest in renewable energy technologies and exploit the potential offered by nuclear and geothermal today, we must take advantage of the coming surge in shale gas and oil production here. To not embrace this revolution would be economic suicide.

Tyrus W. Cobb of Reno served as special assistant to President Ronald Reagan for national security affairs 1983-89.